So, we are being subjected to the latest bout of verbal gymnastics as analysts bend themselves to the futile task of inferring logic from Donald Trump most recent effusions on matters Ukraine. Futile because the man possesses no approximation of a mind capable of coherent thought processes. His sole fixed reference points are emotional obsessions and slogans that sparkle in his otherwise inert grey matter. Statements and actions invariably are random, often self-contradictory, and susceptible to reversal either by mood shifts or by the manipulations of calculating persons in his entourage and stray acquaintances.
This manifest reality is beyond the comprehension of most observers and commentators, as well as statesman as astute as Vladimir Putin. For they have spent their lives reasoning about persons and events that meet some minimal standard of logic – however odd some premises might be, how impractical some objectives, how inconsistent some diplomacy, how tumultuous the domestic setting they live in. Trump, his odd bin collection of fanatics, imperial day-dreamers, league 3 Machiavellians, and sheer incompetents who occupy official positions or otherwise have access to him, are a world unto themselves without precedent for a consequential power. Their common denominator is ignorance: of other countries, of their leaders, of their history, of how the global economy works, of nuclear weapons – and, above all, of themselves and the United States in whose name they presume to act.
Now, we are in a lather trying to make sense of Trump’s latest non-sensical pronouncement on Ukraine. The captions tell us that “Trump Wants out,” “Trump Washes His Hands of Ukraine,” “Presidents Sets Up Europeans as Fall Guys When Ukraine Collapses,” “Trump Reverses Himself on Possible Ukrainian Successes,” “Trump Threatens New Attacks on Russian Oil Trade, Says Russian Economy on Point of Collapse,” “No Easing of Punitive Tariffs on India,” “Trump Urges Europeans to Shoot Down Russian Jets,” “Trumps Launches Personal Attack on Putin.”
Anyone who seeks to make sense of this, in the context of myriad confused initiatives and declarations since January 20, might as well stick to Rubic’s Cube – at least there, the cubes are in fixed positions.
Yet, there is s measure of discernible consistency if we shift our gaze away from the tactical machinations of the past 8 months to the strategic framework of American policy toward Ukraine and Russia. For that has remained constant. Most strikingly, Washington has been waging war on Russia through its proxy from February 2022 until today.
Concretely, it has been the United States that trained and equipped the UAF for offensive actions to retake the Donbass and Crimea; that drew up the plans for an all-out campaign for doing so when preempted by Moscow; that drew up the plans for the Fall 2022 counter offensive; that designed and provided overall command of the massive offensive in June 2023 that failed so ignominiously; that has equipped the Ukrainian military with the most advanced weapons in the American arsenal; that used all its influence to extract equipment and shells from allies around the world; that placed a networks of 13 CIA manned Intelligence hubs on the border to provide tactical intelligence for operations of various types against Russia; that trained and works hand-in-glove with the Ukrainian SBU at all levels; that provides crucial satellite and electronic Intelligence that makes possible Ukrainian drone and missile attacks on targets in Russia; that is the de facto operator of HIMARS and ATACMS ballistic missiles providing operation codes (along with satellite data) – as required by U.S. law – without which Ukrainian officers would be unable to activate those systems. In toto, between 3-4,000 American military personnel are permanently assigned to Ukraine.
NONE of this has changed under Trump nor is any change indicated.
The one concrete change is Washington’s insistence that the Europeans pay for the weaponry and related equipment that the United States provides Ukraine. In other words, those transactions henceforth will be on a commercial basis rather than in the form of aid. This manifestly does not represent a “retreat” from Ukraine, an “abandonment” of Europe, much less a reversion to “neo-isolationism.” The American foreign policy elite (and political class generally) remains dedicated to the historic project of securing our dominance of the world system – a commitment now made more urgent by the appearance of powers that could challenge it. A sense of national vulnerability and diminished prowess adds to that felt imperative.
It was always unrealistic to take at face value Trump’s remarks that he wanted to be the peacemaker in Ukraine. For, to do so, he and America would have to accept minimal Russian terms representing a humiliating defeat for the West. That reality was unspinnable. Hence, all the toing-and-froing on ceasefires, on staged virtual meetings in Istanbul, on summits with Putin, on deals for trading Russian occupied for an stop to hostilities – has been contrived theatre whose outcome should have been foreseen.
The United States’ goal in regard to Russia since 1991 has been to keep it weak and dependent on the West, to control its natural resources, to marginalize it as a power in Europe and in the Middle East, a non-factor in the global scheme of things. In brief, Russia’s role was to be an adjunct to America’s hegemonic world order. When Vladimir Putin in February 2007 at the Munich Security Conference made it clear that Russia would follow the course of basing its policies on Russian sovereign interest instead, the instant reaction in Washington (and other Western capitals) was to initiate actions intended to thwart Russia’s plans for regaining an independent place in the international system, to isolate it, and to force it to reverse course by replacing Putin with a more pliable leader. That has remained constant, unqualified, and unchallenged from George Bush through Obama, Trump I, Biden, and now in Trump II. It is a goal whose premises and purposes are agreed by the near totality of the country’s political class. Trump’s fulminations cannot hide the cardinal fact that America is locked into a self-declared combat with Russia – and all who are associated with it.