In an extraordinary televised statement, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has told the Zionist faithful that the state of Israel will curtail its current ambitions as part of a longer term strategy. The statement is short on specifics, but it comes on the heels of several apparent major failures of Israeli policy.
The most recent is the attack on Qatar, which has probably robbed both Israel and the US of the vaunted Abraham Accords, which had been a cornerstone in Israeli, US and Western policy in the region. Although Israel, the UAE and Bahrain are the only official signers, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Oman, Bahrain and Kuwait assumed (or gained assurances) that by “normalizing” relations with Israel and cooperating with the US and NATO countries, they could come under a protective American umbrella that would assure their security from common enemies, in much the same way as Jordan and Egypt, if not better. The bombing of Qatar was a message that not only can they not trust Israel to honor the arrangement, but that US protection – a supposedly rock solid foundation – was essentially worthless, even for a small, compliant country housing the largest US military base in West Asia to protect it. The fact that the Israeli bombings took place in the capital of Qatar, less than 20 miles from al-Udeid airbase leased to the US and heaquarters of the US Central Command, was not lost on the Qataris or the other Gulf monarchies. It was a grave shock to US interests in the region. Even if the US had taken pains to assure the Arab monarchies after the fact that it had been a foolish error of judgment that would not be repeated, these conservative and sensitive partners are not likely to take such assurances for granted anymore, and will be more open to offers from more reliable protectors.
The US does not often rebuff or chastise Israel, and even less under a Trump administration so beholden to Israel and its US supporters for delivering the White House to him. But in this case even the threat of releasing Epstein files – which the Mossad is thought to hold – might not be enough to coerce such assistance to Israel for a second such episode. (You can only divulge the files once, after which they no longer have value.)
This brings us to the threat of a US-Israeli attack on Iran. This, too, is probably receding, partly as an effect of the Israeli and US miscalculation in Qatar. Instead, the US is more likely to settle for the recent UN imposition of “snapback” economic sanctions on Iran, which were probably inevitable in any case. Even Iran and the rest of the world might prefer such sanctions as an alternative to a major regional war with unknown consequences. In addition, the Pentagon has expressed concern about the depletion of US weaponry through transfer to Israel and Ukraine. Netanyahu’s speech indicates that Israel might also be having second thoughts, related more to the effect of such a war upon an Israeli public already demoralized and by what seems like endless sacrifices to them. Another exodus of Israel’s population could have major long term consequences.
For these reasons and others, it is possible that Israel is also trimming its ambitions with respect to Gaza. Already, Netanyahu has stepped back from his recent goal of depopulating all of Gaza. His military commanders have told him that they would need six infantry divisions to do that, while the current under-strength units amount to little more than one. Netanyahu has therefore adjusted the goal to ethnically cleansing just the northern third of the territory, consisting mostly of Gaza City. Nevertheless, this task is more difficult because few Palestinians in northern Gaza consider southern Gaza safer or more livable than Gaza City, even under attack. Netanyahu knows how to change that equation, but he won’t. Furthermore, the longer he pursues this objective, the less patient the Israeli population – including the military – will become, and the more casualties it will take from the literally underground resistance of Hamas and its allies. Israeli society is substantially exhausted and perhaps unwilling to stay the course.
Of course, Israel is by no means throwing in the towel on all of its actual and potential occupied territories. It has captured substantial amounts of Syrian territory with relatively little opposition since the defeat of the Syrian army. Its military is also active in Lebanon, with the long term purpose of capturing, depopulating and annexing south Lebanon. Resistance there has been subdued since a ceasefire was negotiated November 27, 2024, despite thousands of Israeli violations, but Israel may decide that this is where it can advance its expansionist agenda more successfully than on other fronts. Nevertheless, Israel has failed at least six times at capturing south Lebanon since 1967, and it may prove beyond their means this time, as well. Hezbollah will undoubtedly have a say in the matter.
Meanwhile, the rest of the world is becoming more activist in isolating and ostracizing Israel. Israel can survive even if its only lifeline is the US, but it could potentially become a caged existence that will last only as long as its support in the US, where the Jewish community seems to be growing at roughly the same rate that Israel’s shrinks, but where there is increasing concern that Israel is committing a genocide.
These trends are reflected in Netanyahu’s speech and in the frustration and division within Israeli society itself. Is the Zionist experiment finally starting to fail? We know that it cannot survive without massive support and protection from the United States and its powerful Zionist lobby. But is this lobby reaching the limits of its power, as it seeks to circumscribe free speech, academia, the media and other aspects of American society, using antisemitism as a bludgeon? It is not clear that Americans, especially the younger generation, will tolerate such invasion upon their lives and freedoms.