Back to the Future

by Michael Brenner / April 10th, 2025

SETTING: Rome
DATE: March 411 CE
SCENE: Ruins of the Diocletian Baths
PRINCIPALS: Four habitués gather in the remains of the tepidarium

The foursome is made up of local cognoscenti – self-styled pundits who gather to exchange impressions of what’s happenings in the imperial capital. All the normal chatter about the rising cost of housing, what gladiator is the GOAT (Greatest Of All Time), the relative merits of the Diocletian thermae and the Antonine thermae on the sea at Carthage, gossip on the latest political machinations and the reports from the endless war against the Sassanids in eastern Syria is eclipsed by the calamitous sack of Rome by Alaric’s Visigoths. Much of the city is scarred by their orgy of destruction, their plunder of its riches and the flight of so many patricians to safer locales. Alaric, now in complete control of the state apparatus, is moving swiftly to dismantle Rome’s venerable institutions, and desecrating the city’s famed historic monuments – replacing them with grander yet artless versions of the rude structures that mar the landscape of the Visigoth homeland.

Magnus:  It’s still a shock to imagine that just 7 months ago this was the most magnificent building anywhere in the Empire. Now, even a routine change of the water is no more than a fading memory.  My only consolation is that it could have been worse; what if the Huns or the Vandals had done the sacking!
Romulus:  You’re right – the glass is either half full or half empty depending where you focus your attention.
Gaius: Let’s be Stoic realists; the groundwork for this disgraceful collapse was done years ago – at least as far back as Constantius, that wild man.  Honorius, our last Emperor, was well past his prime – not that his prime was particularly luminous. Hardly able to articulate, he almost never appeared in the Senate or at the games in the Colosseum. The plebeians lost respect for Imperial authority, and Romans’ mood turned sour.
Augustine: Friends, aren’t you sugarcoating a tragedy that has seen noble Rome lose its integrity, its honor and above all its independence and freedom?
Gaius: Yes, but we shouldn’t overlook the positive initiatives that Alaric has launched. For one thing, he recognizes the folly of trying to expand the Roman frontier all the way to the Euphrates. History should have counseled that the Sassanids never would countenance that; think of the fate that befell Crassus. We’re stuck in a sand trap there, and the only way out is to cut our losses – end support for the Armenian and Kurdish insurrections, strike a deal with King Yazdegerd and concentrate our resources on mounting domestic problems. Alaric’s instincts point in the right direction despite the lack of comprehensive diplomatic strategy. His first step in making contact with Yazdegerd is a gamechanger. In fact, the word around the Forum is that the two leaders may meet face-to-face in Palmyra. Alaric respects Yazdegerd as a tough leader with whom he can do business. Moreover, Yazdegerd’s definitive ending of persecution of Christians within the Sassanid empire eases any pressure from his Arian base over this stunning policy reversal.
Romulus:  A definite improvement over the dumb obstinacy of the Honorius crowd.
Augustine: The truth is that for too long Rome has overlooked the threat to our strategic dominance of an emerging tacit alliance between Persia and the Huns. Their clear target is the Roman Empire – each for its own reasons. Just look at the latest trade statistics. The exchange of steppe horses from Central Asia for metallurgical technology from the Sassanids has increased 4-fold. Our smart move would be to drive a wedge between Persia and the Huns. Reaching a modus vivendi with Persia follows logically from analysis of the emerging correlation of forces.
Magnus:  What do you guys think about yesterday’s announcement that Alaric is placing 35% tariffs on grain imports from Egypt and Carthage? Isn’t that going to have far-reaching repercussions for the entire Mediterranean basin economic system? Above all, hasn’t Rome depended on that grain to feed the plebeians, fulfilling our longstanding commitment to provide cheap bread for all in exchange for unqualified loyalty to the Emperor?  After all, the frumentatio goes back to the days of the Republic. The Bread & Circuses strategy has kept Rome peaceful and unified for centuries. I’m not sure that putting the entire burden on circuses is tenable – especially in light of the declining quality of the games. They’re not at all what they used to be – over commercialized.
Gaius: It is a bit of a gamble, but I can see where Alaric is coming from. Sometimes, you have to accept short term pain for long term gain. Peninsular agriculture has been languishing for generations. It badly needs the kind of infrastructure investment that tariff revenues could pay for. We must do something to revive it; otherwise, we run the risk of becoming vulnerable to political discord in supplier provinces that could disrupt deliveries.
Magnus:  Why, though, impose 10% tariffs on imports from Gaul and 15% on Lusitania? And slapping a 50% tariff on Tuareg exports of salt? That’s the mainstay of their economy – poor devils.
Romulus:  Fairness and equity; you have to go with what the analytics tell you.
Gaius: Alaric and his advisers are not as dim-witted as they sound – they must have other national security concerns on their minds
Augustine: I want to add that a touch of austerity might be just the right thing to stiffen the moral fiber of Romans. Face it, we had become pretty soft – everybody looking for handouts, a bloated bureaucracy to serve them, and bringing in hordes of barbarian immigrants to do the jobs that Romans now shirk. Crime, an epidemic of opium addiction and a drain on the Treasury is the result.
Gaius: Time to Make Rome Great Again?
Magnus:  Damn! This water is getting cold. I knew that the baths would suffer when they summarily deported the maintenance guys back to DACIA!
Postscript
In 476 Rome breathed its last – a degraded, impoverished Rome. Europe’s 600-year Dark Ages followed.
Michael Brenner is Professor Emeritus of International Affairs at the University of Pittsburgh and a Fellow of the Center for Transatlantic Relations at SAIS/Johns Hopkins. He was the Director of the International Relations & Global Studies Program at the University of Texas. Brenner is the author of numerous books, and over 80 articles and published papers. His most recent works are: Democracy Promotion and Islam; Fear and Dread In The Middle East; Toward A More Independent Europe ; Narcissistic Public Personalities & Our Times. Read other articles by Michael.

This article was posted on Thursday, April 10th, 2025 at 7:34am and is filed under Empire.