The final results for German’s Bundestag election show that the Alternative for Germany or AfD finishing a strong second with 20.8% and 152 seats. The CDU/CSU finished first by garnering 28.52% and 208 seats, while Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s Social Democrats had a record low 16% and 120 seats.
The New York Times found that the overriding concern in German life according to interviews and polls, and the thing most likely to drive the choice of voters, is the country’s anemic economy.” (NYT, 2/22/25). I don’t know how typical she is, but one probable AfD voter volunteered that she didn’t share all AfD positions: “People are angry with the government because they can’t pay their bills.” They aren’t wrong about the economy, as all available evidence suggests that Germany’s economy is flatlining and hasn’t grown in five years. German experts are predicting an anemic 0.3 percent growth rate this year and the country is facing an ailing industrial sector, low productivity, an absence of competitiveness and especially, very high energy costs. Emblematic of what’s occurring is the news that BASF, the world largest chemical company has already begun closing down factories in Germany and shifting production to China and the United States.” (NYT, 2/23/25).
Frederick Merz, the conservative candidate from the Christian Democratic Party, is now poised to become the next Chancellor. What is his response to the current crisis? He promises to increase defense spending, continue supporting the war in Ukraine with longer range Taurus missiles and take a strong stance against China. The New York Times suggests that Merz’s “fresh face is a jolt Europe needs” but his position is consistent with other European vassals who live in some fantasy land and marched lockstep with Biden in backing the US proxy war against Russia. By doing so, they utterly and almost incomprehensibly ignored the consequences, especially increased dependence on the United States. For example, think of how Europe was forced to buy much more expensive gas from the US when they went along with Washington’s sanctions and blowing up the Nord Stream pipeline. None of this was by accident.
I would argue it was always the part of the neocon plan to deindustrialize Europe to the economic benefit of the United States. Now Trump has pulled the rug out from under these “allies” and he will not only normalize relations with Russia but lift sanctions and US companies will re-enter Russia where the prospects for making massive profits await. One calculation suggests that U.S. companies leaving Russia, like I.T. And Media, lost $123 billion and Consumer and Health, $94 billion. “Foregone profits” since the start of the war have been calculated at more than $100 billion. (NYT, 2/19/25).
My point is that the neocons fleeced Europe and their leaders not only went along but are continuing to do so. Russia has everything that Europe needs but the EU’s hapless leaders recently announced a new set of sanctions on Russia and want to ramp up defense spending. Ursula von den Leyen, president of the European Union’s executive arm, recently declared that the destiny of Ukraine is also “Europe’s destiny.” As this proceeds, the vaunted European welfare state will continue to decline because the ruling elites have abandoned any responsibility to their own populations. And if right-wing parties continue to flourish, these leaders and their onetime US collaborators have only themselves to blame. The chickens are coming home to roost.
In addressing a recent gathering of the EU Parliament, Prof. Jeffrey Sachs (no left-wing radical) patiently explained, chapter and verse, how their present situation unfolded over the years as European leaders lost their voice and became subservient to Washington’s desire for unilateral dominance of the globe. Fittingly, he repeated Henry Kissinger’s famous adage, “To be an enemy of the United States is dangerous but to be a friend of the United States is fatal.” What next? I’m hardly the first person to conclude that sooner than many observers realize, Trump is going to tell Europe’s leaders that a serious reckoning looms if they don’t sign on to the Ukraine deal. To put it bluntly, either they go along or the exports and imports (think cars and gas) they need to survive as viable economies will not be forthcoming from the U.S. and its Russian, Saudi Arabian and Chinese allies.