Bush Talks Long-Term Stay in Iraq and More Troops Die

As President Bush and members of his administration described the “South Korea Model” as an approach for Iraq, deaths in Iraq mounted. In the same week General Patraeus said he saw a ten year stay in Iraq as likely and Ted Koppel reported that Sen. Clinton will not remove the troops. The message not only reverberated in Washington, DC but also in Baghdad.

Last week, 30 U.S. troops were killed — an average of more than four deaths per day, not long ago the average was two per day. Bush administration comments on a long-term stay come at a time when U.S. soldiers are at greater risk due to the surge in Iraq. Not only are U.S. soldiers dying at an increasingly rapid rate but attacks on the Green Zone are also escalating with mortars hitting inside every day, often multiple times per day.

If it were not clear that the U.S. is staying from the massive U.S. embassy that dominates the Baghdad skyline, or then billion dollar, long-term military bases the U.S. is building or the multi-decade long oil contracts that U.S. oil companies are negotiating, now they can take it right out of the comments of administration officials — the U.S. has tens of thousands of troops and long-term bases in Korea and that is the model that the Bush administration says it is considering for Iraq.

This is not the first time that the words of the commander in chief have resulted in the deaths of U.S. soldiers. His famous “Bring em on” comment to the resistance to the occupation had the same impact as the current comments on applying the “Korea Model” to Iraq.

Comments of a long-term stay come after 144 members of the 275 member Iraqi Parliament signed a petition urging withdrawal and after a majority passed a bill requiring the Prime Minister to get the Parliament’s approval before telling the UN to extend the occupation. Thus, as the Iraqi Parliament is taking steps to end the occupation, the Bush administration is talking about a multi-decade stay.

And, if Iraqis are watching U.S. politics closely they may have heard Ted Koppel report on NPR that Hillary Clinton’s top foreign policy adviser told him that Sen. Clinton will not remove the troops in her first term or her second term. Further, he reported that no leading Democratic candidate is likely to remove the troops. Thus, there a widening disconnect between Iraqi government officials and the U.S. political leadership.

This open talk of the “Korea Model” also comes at a time when more and more troops are going AWOL, speaking out against the war and refusing to return to Iraq or follow orders in Iraq. More than a year ago 72% of the troops said the U.S. should withdraw in a year, now more and more troops are becoming vocal in their opposition to the war and their lack faith in their commander in chief.

The military recognizes that troops who speak out against the war are a serious problem for them because they are among the most powerful spokespersons against the war. Vets strike at the heart of the fund the ‘we must support the troops’ arguments of Washington politicians.

At a meeting last week to plan escalating actions against the war by vets, the Chairman of Iraq Veterans Against the War, Garret Reppenhagen made the point “Funding the war is killing the troops.” The Marines have already taken action against one Marine, Adam Kokesh. The Marines were criticized by Veterans of Foreign Wars, a vet group with 2.5 million members, for threatening the free speech rights of vets. The Marines did discipline Kokesh, giving him a general discharge under honorable conditions, but backed away from taking away any of his veterans benefits.

Two other vets who are leaders in the anti-war movement are also being threatened with discipline. Marine Vet Liam Madden, who while in the service was a co-founder of Appeal for Redress — a group organizing active duty troops who oppose the war, is being threatened with discipline for saying that the Iraq War was a “war of aggression under Nuremberg principles” and that “war crimes are being committed in Iraq.” And, former Air Force Chaplain, Rev. Lennox Yearwood, who has been participating in demonstrations in Washington, DC and around the country, is being threatened with discipline for “conduct unbecoming of an officer” for his anti-war activity – even though he has been out of the service for four years. Both officers welcome the attention of the military and plan to escalate their anti-war activities.

The public in the U.S. is getting more strongly opposed to the war, the Iraqi political leadership is demonstrating its’ opposition to the occupation and more and more U.S. troops are speaking out. The disconnect between the U.S. political leadership and these key stakeholders is becoming more and more evident. This occupation is becoming more difficult to justify.

Kevin Zeese co-directs Popular Resistance and is on the coordinating council for the Maryland Green Party. Read other articles by Kevin, or visit Kevin's website.

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  1. atheo said on June 26th, 2007 at 6:53am #

    Yes Kevin. “This occupation is becoming more difficult to justify.” That’s why the Bush regime is falling back on “war for oil” as a selling point for continued occupation. Left unstated is the fact that the US must spend 20 times the value of the extracted oil (spending which must be financed at rising rates of interest). The accumulating debt from this ongoing loss exacerbates the weakness of the market for treasuries which puts pressure on rates to rise further in a vicious circle and due to the fact that the debt is sold abroad itthreatens the dollar. Your analysis:

    ” the multi-decade long oil contracts that U.S. oil companies are negotiating”

    only presents a small part of this picture. The part that the war mongers don’t mind exposing. Americans have shown support for military action to preserve access to oil since the Carter doctrine. But this occupation isn’t about preserving access to oil. Even the reserves of Iraqi oil are being overstated in a desperate attempt to justify maintaining the occupation:

    Is the story of ‘massive untapped oil reserves’ fact or fictions?

    By Sharif Ali

    Azzaman, May 29, 2007

    The restive Province of Anbar grabbed the headlines of world media recently. But the news, fortunately, was not related to the ongoing violence and ferocious resistance of U.S. occupation the province has been reputed for in the past four years.

    Suddenly, world media focused their attention on significant oil reserves of 100 billion barrels. And where? In the western desert and specifically in Ramadi Province.

    The reports ostensibly left no doubt that the province sits on gigantic oil fields which, if exploited, would place Iraq ahead of Saudi Arabia as he world’s top oil producer.

    The reports were based on a study by energy analysts I.H.S.

    The figures took Iraqi oil experts and analysts by surprise and they have their own reasons to be suspicious of the estimates and the timing of their announcement.

    The Province of Anbar is Iraq’s largest, occupying 31.1 percent of Iraq’s area of 434,934 square kilometers.

    The province, the scourge of U.S. invasion troops, is inhabited by 1.3 million people and more than 95 percent of its land is barren desert.

    Iraq Petroleum Company (IPC) carried out seismic surveys of the province and dug numerous oil wells between 1955 and 1061.

    The National oil Company made its own surveys which continued for over two decades and only came to a halt after the imposition of punitive U.N. trade sanctions in 1990.

    During the same period major oil firms like ExxonMobil, Japex (Japan Petroleum Exploration), Ascom, Petronas and Repsol made extensive surveys through joint agreements signed with the Ministry of Oil.

    The reports of all these surveys, which are part of the Oil Ministry’s archives, were discouraging and could not come up with categorical results that the western desert, that is the area falling within the provincial borders of Anbar, holds substantial oil or gas reserves.

    That conclusion was substantiated by an article in MEES, the authoritative Middle East Economic Survey, in a report about the results of 2004 surveys by American geological groups which said the area’s oil reserves run between half a billion and one billion and a half of proven reserves.

    Brushing all these findings aside, the U.S. energy analysts I.H.S., for reasons yet to be uncovered, reveals surprising and shocking figures of estimates totaling 100 billion barrels.

    Who are we to believe? Is it logical and sane to doubt the surveys by IPC, the National Oil Company, giant foreign oil firms and recent surveys by U.S. groups and believe the I.H.S?

    I.H.S. report smacks of politicization. It was written and made public with the aim of pacifying the violent and restive province by telling its rebellious population it is better for them to lay down their arms and make use of their oil riches under the new oil law and federal system.

    But the powers that inspired the I.H.S. report forget that one major reason for the Iraqis frustration and disillusionment is the oil law in its current form and the federal system.

    Whatever oil is there in Iraq belongs to Iraqis as a nation the fruits of which will have to be reaped by the country at large and not its federated provinces.

    Note: The writer is an expert in Iraqi oil reserves and served as a director-general at the Oil Ministry.

  2. RLaing said on June 26th, 2007 at 2:56pm #

    The costs of the war exceed the present revenue stream, perhaps, but that is an argument against continuing the war only if the costs are paid by the same people who collect that profits, and that isn’t true. The public is on hook for the debt, if anyone is, but I don’t imagine they’ll be gettings cheques from the oil companies any time soon, or ever.

    Anyway, strong countries don’t come under the same pressures to meet debt obligations as weak countries do, and the U.S. is still extremely powerful.

    There’s a good deal more at stake here than just the profits from oil extraction directly, although that is obviously a large and important issue for U.S. elites. Failure to assert military hegemony over ME energy reserves will also likely weaken the U.S. dollar, erode popular support for stratospheric military spending, and possibly damage or even destroy the existing corporate-friendly social order.

    As an aside, American soldiers are being killed because they are the instruments of occupation, not because of anything George Bush does nor does not say.

  3. atheo said on June 26th, 2007 at 3:39pm #

    @ RLaing
    If the war was intended as a method to transfer wealth from the US treasury to big oil, it would have to be compared to the much more efficient method of simply granting tax breaks or subsidies. These other methods involve no casualties or damage to US international relations.
    Likewise, your suggestion that the US is so “strong” that it doesn’t come under pressure to pay back the debt is illogical. If anything is a threat to the “corporate friendly social order” or the dollar it’s the endless wars for Israeli dominance in the M.E. US imperial interests and those of big oil are being sacrificed by the placement of barriers to economic activity in Iran (a thoroughly capitalist nation open to multinational penetration):

    Iran oil exports at risk in UK ship sanctions plan

    By Stefano Ambrogi

    LONDON (Reuters) – A British proposal to target Iran’s national shipping lines under a draft U.N. sanctions resolution could temporarily curb Tehran’s ability to export oil to world markets, maritime sources said on Tuesday.

    The confidential draft, obtained by Reuters on Friday, suggests denying rights of passage to Iranian merchant ships in foreign waters. The withdrawal of landing rights for Iranian aircraft is also suggested.

    The proposal would have countries “deny permission to take off from, land in or overfly their territories, or berth in or secure passage through their territorial waters, of all aircraft and vessels owned or controlled by Iranian airlines or shipping companies.”

    Under the United Nations Law of the Sea Convention ships of all nations have the right of innocent passage through a country’s territorial seas. U.N. member nations are bound to enforce Security Council resolutions once adopted.

    Oil shipping sources said on Tuesday that, if adopted, the proposal could have a short-term effect on Iran’s ability to supply oil to world markets, even though U.S. and European officials insist it is not meant to target Iran’s oil.

    “It’s a question of logistics,” said James Davis of Lloyd’s Marine Intelligence Unit (LMIU) in London, a consultancy that tracks global oil tanker flows.

    SHORT-TERM IMPACT

    He said Iran could revert to the commercial shipping market to move its oil, thereby side-stepping the United Nations.

    “Whether there is enough tanker capacity to cover it is another question, but I think we are looking at a short-term impact,” he said.

    The draft sanctions proposal is aimed at ratcheting up pressure on Iran for defying U.N. Security Council demands to halt uranium enrichment.

    Iran says its goal is peaceful generation of electricity. The West fears the enrichment is aimed at producing a nuclear weapon.

    Oil ship industry sources estimate that around 40 percent of Iran’s crude oil exports are shipped on National Iranian Tanker Company (NITC) vessels. An NITC official contacted by Reuters in Tehran declined to say how much the state-owned fleet carried.

    Iran, OPEC’s second largest producer, pumps 3.85 million barrels of crude a day and exports 2.4 million barrels of that on tankers by sea, with about 60 percent bound for Asia and the remainder shipped to Europe.

    Washington has banned U.S. companies from lifting Iranian oil and investing in Iran since 1995.

    “For 2007 we’ve observed under 40 percent of crude oil exports shipped on NITC vessels, mostly from Kharg Island in the Gulf,” LMIU’s Davis said.

    One of the biggest oil tanker firms operating in the Gulf estimated the figure to be 42 percent of exports.

    Davis said the remainder was moved by oil firms aboard their own supertanker fleets or aboard privately chartered vessels.

    “The main lifters are Japanese, Indian, Chinese, South Korean. A small amount goes to southern Europe,” he said.

    A second proposal would target aircraft and vessels — including those operated by the Islamic of Republic of Iran Shipping Line and Iran Air Cargo — that traffic in goods banned under two previous U.N. resolutions.

    http://africa.reuters.com/world/news/usnL269674.html

  4. atheo said on June 26th, 2007 at 5:05pm #

    If the Bush regime wanted to transfer assets from the US treasury to big oil, they could more efficiently provide tax breaks or subsidies and skip all the damage to international relations and US military casualties.

    Big oil’s interests are being abused in these wars for Israel.
    Iran is a thoroughly capitalist nation with multi-national corporate penetration. US firms are losing market share.

    Iran oil exports at risk in UK ship sanctions plan

    By Stefano Ambrogi

    LONDON (Reuters) – A British proposal to target Iran’s national shipping lines under a draft U.N. sanctions resolution could temporarily curb Tehran’s ability to export oil to world markets, maritime sources said on Tuesday.

    The confidential draft, obtained by Reuters on Friday, suggests denying rights of passage to Iranian merchant ships in foreign waters. The withdrawal of landing rights for Iranian aircraft is also suggested.

    The proposal would have countries “deny permission to take off from, land in or overfly their territories, or berth in or secure passage through their territorial waters, of all aircraft and vessels owned or controlled by Iranian airlines or shipping companies.”

    Under the United Nations Law of the Sea Convention ships of all nations have the right of innocent passage through a country’s territorial seas. U.N. member nations are bound to enforce Security Council resolutions once adopted.

    Oil shipping sources said on Tuesday that, if adopted, the proposal could have a short-term effect on Iran’s ability to supply oil to world markets, even though U.S. and European officials insist it is not meant to target Iran’s oil.

    “It’s a question of logistics,” said James Davis of Lloyd’s Marine Intelligence Unit (LMIU) in London, a consultancy that tracks global oil tanker flows.

    SHORT-TERM IMPACT

    He said Iran could revert to the commercial shipping market to move its oil, thereby side-stepping the United Nations.

    “Whether there is enough tanker capacity to cover it is another question, but I think we are looking at a short-term impact,” he said.

    The draft sanctions proposal is aimed at ratcheting up pressure on Iran for defying U.N. Security Council demands to halt uranium enrichment.

    Iran says its goal is peaceful generation of electricity. The West fears the enrichment is aimed at producing a nuclear weapon.

    Oil ship industry sources estimate that around 40 percent of Iran’s crude oil exports are shipped on National Iranian Tanker Company (NITC) vessels. An NITC official contacted by Reuters in Tehran declined to say how much the state-owned fleet carried.

    Iran, OPEC’s second largest producer, pumps 3.85 million barrels of crude a day and exports 2.4 million barrels of that on tankers by sea, with about 60 percent bound for Asia and the remainder shipped to Europe.

    Washington has banned U.S. companies from lifting Iranian oil and investing in Iran since 1995.

    “For 2007 we’ve observed under 40 percent of crude oil exports shipped on NITC vessels, mostly from Kharg Island in the Gulf,” LMIU’s Davis said.

    One of the biggest oil tanker firms operating in the Gulf estimated the figure to be 42 percent of exports.

    Davis said the remainder was moved by oil firms aboard their own supertanker fleets or aboard privately chartered vessels.

    “The main lifters are Japanese, Indian, Chinese, South Korean. A small amount goes to southern Europe,” he said.

    A second proposal would target aircraft and vessels — including those operated by the Islamic of Republic of Iran Shipping Line and Iran Air Cargo — that traffic in goods banned under two previous U.N. resolutions.

    http://africa.reuters.com/world/news/usnL269674.html