WikiLeaks: More Israeli Game Theory Warfare?

The United States is the real victim of WikiLeaks. It’s an action aimed at discrediting them.

— Franco Frattini, Foreign Minister of Italy

The impact of the WikiLeaks release of diplomatic cables fits the behavior profile of those well versed in game theory warfare.

When Israeli mathematician, Robert J. Aumann, received the 2005 Nobel Prize in economic science for his work on game theory, he conceded, “the entire school of thought that we have developed here in Israel” has turned “Israel into the leading authority in this field.”

The candor of this Israeli-American offered a rare insight into an enclave long known for waging war from the shadows. Israel’s most notable success to date was “fixing” the intelligence that induced the U.S. to invade Iraq in pursuit of a geopolitical agenda long sought by Tel Aviv.

When waging intelligence wars, timing is often the critical factor for game-theory war planners. The outcome of the WikiLeaks release suggests a psy-ops directed at the U.S.

Why now? Tel Aviv was feeling pressure to end its six-decade occupation of Palestine. With this release, its foot-dragging on the peace process was displaced with talk of an attack on Iran.

While the U.S. bore the brunt of the damage, the target was global public opinion. To maintain the plausibility of The Clash of Civilizations, a focus must be maintained on Iran as a credible Evil Doer.

With fast-emerging transparency, Israel and pro-Israelis have been identified as the source of the intelligence that took coalition forces to war in Iraq. Thus the need to shift attention off Tel Aviv.

WikiLeaks may yet succeed in that mission.

Foreseeable Futures

Game theory war planning aims to create outcomes that are predictable — within an acceptable range of probabilities. That’s why Israeli war planners focus on gaining traction for a plausible narrative and then advancing that storyline step by gradual step.

For the Zionist state to succeed with its expansionist agenda, Iran must remain at center stage as an essential villain in a geopolitical morality play pitting the West against Islamo Fascists.

To displace facts with false beliefs — as with belief in the intelligence that induced the invasion of Iraq — momentum must be maintained for the storyline. Lose the plot (The Clash) and peace might break out. And those deceived may identify the deceiver.

Thus the timing of this latest WikiLeaks release. Its goal: to have us believe that it is not Tel Aviv but Washington that is the forefront of geopolitical duplicity and a source of Evil Doing.

Intelligence wars rely on mathematical models to anticipate the response of those targeted. With game theory algorithms, reactions become foreseeable — within an acceptable range of probabilities.

Control enough of the variables and outcomes become a mathematical inevitability.

The WikiLeaks Motive

Was the reaction to this latest WikiLeaks foreseeable? With exquisite timing, the U.S. was discredited with an array of revelations that called into question U.S. motives and put in jeopardy U.S. relations worldwide.

As the Italian Foreign Minister summarized: “The news released by WikiLeaks will change diplomatic relations between countries.”

The hard-earned trust of the Pakistanis disappeared overnight. Attempts to engage Iran were set back. The overall effect advanced The Clash storyline. If Washington could so badly misread North Korean intentions, then why is the U.S. to be trusted when it comes to a nuclear Iran?

This Wiki-catalyzed storyline pushed Israel off the front page in favor of Iran.

Even U.S. detainees at Guantanamo are again at issue, reigniting that shameful spectacle as a provocation for extremism and terror. U.S. diplomats will now be suspected of spying and lying. What nation can now trust Americans to maintain confidences?

In short, the risks increased for everyone.

Except Israel.

Should Israel launch an attack on Iran, Tel Aviv can cite WikiLeaks as its rationale. Though an attack would be calamitous from a human, economic and financial perspective, even that foreseeable outcome would be dwarfed by the enduring hatred that would ensue.

That too is foreseeable — from a game theory perspective of those marketing The Clash.

The effect of the U.S. invasion of Iraq was predictable. King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia foresaw it, noting simply that the U.S. invasion would “give Iraq to Iran as a gift on a golden platter.”

With the elimination of Sunni leader Saddam Hussein, the numerically dominant Shiites of Iraq were drawn into the political orbit of the Shiite-dominant Iran.

Game theorists focus their manipulation of affairs on their control of key variables. Then events take on a life all their own. The impact of this discrediting release was wide-ranging and fully foreseeable.

A Mossad case officer explained Israel’s success at waging war by way of deception: “Once the orchestra starts to play, we just hum along.”

These, after all, are the leading authorities in the field.

Jeff Gates is author of Guilt By Association, Democracy at Risk, and The Ownership Solution. Read other articles by Jeff, or visit Jeff's website.

18 comments on this article so far ...

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  1. MichaelKenny said on December 1st, 2010 at 9:25am #

    Boy, oh boy, the “Israel always wins” line always manages to pop up! So Israel pushed the US into an unwinnable war in Iraq so as to push Iraq into the arms of Iran so that Israel would have an excuse to attack Iran? That’s utter nonsense. First of all because such a complicated conspiracy theory is impossible to realise in the real world. Secondly, since anyone with a lick of sense could see that the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan were unwinnable from the start, Israel would never have pushed the US to self-destruct. Israel wouldn’t survive five minutes without its American bully, but these wars are irreversably destroying US power, which, in its turn, will bring down Israel. If the Israelis were really as omniscient as Mr Gates wants us to beleive, they would have forseen that and done everything to prevent it, instead of swaggering around chuckling at their own “cleverness”. The real victim is indeed the US, and, by extension, Israel. So,by trying to hype Wikileaks as a “victory” for Israel, or even more a pre-planned victory, Israel’s leaders and their American supporters are clutching frantically at straws, which just shows how desperate they think Israel’s position really is. Good news for the Palestinians, as we approach St Nicholas’s Day, the start of the Christmas season.

  2. shabnam said on December 1st, 2010 at 9:53am #

    {Israel wouldn’t survive five minutes without its American bully, but these wars are irreversably destroying US power,..}

    Mr. Jeff Gates and people like him who are against the Zionist expansionist policy do not say “Israel always wins” as ignorant people want us to believe, rather they are trying to expose the vicious political games play by desperate Judeofascists to buy legitimacy forthemselves with NO SUCCESS.
    If people believe what the ignorant people are saying, then why have people bothered to inform the international community about the crimes of Judeofascists who ‘always win’?

    Gilad Atzmon believes American empire will go down, thanks TO STUPIDITY OF JUDEOFACISTS’ POLITICAL GAMES. Israel has NO LEGITIMICY.
    Gilad Atzmon has written:

    The Zionists in fact have managed to bring down every super power they cling to. Britain, France and now America. You have to allow yourself to admit that the ‘War on Terror’ was actually a Zionist led war against Islam, a battle that was there to serve Israeli interests.


  3. Max Shields said on December 1st, 2010 at 10:29am #

    MichaelKenny said on December 1st, 2010 at 9:25am #
    I think you’ve captured my sentiments.

    People start from a premise – Israel is bad. From there all else becomes a mere point of reference, as Israel grows as a player in disproportion to anything feasible in the real world. To understand this “conspiracy” theory stuff, does not undermine the truth about Israel as a cancerous predator; but one must refrain from demanding that all in the world needs to somehow stem from Israel…as if all in the world which we would define as evil is found in one geographical location on the planet, a client state of the US no less; and if Wikileaks doesn’t show that all evil actions somehow stem from this one source…well than Wikileaks must be in cahoots with the Zionists!!

    The US has been in one failed war after another. It doesn’t need Israel to push it into war. It is a war machine. If you live anywhere near (100 miles) a US base, you’ll know just how this nation has become integrated into the military machine…heros all. In fact, the Military is so god-like in the USA that gays won’t have their rights UNTIL they can join up as a proud gay soldiers and fight our “enemies”. With sadness, this country is primarily a war/killing machine. It is reckless and so fights where, as MichaelKenny states, anyone with half a brain knows there is no chance of “winning”.

    Face it this is the dumbest nation on the planet and it is stocked to the gills with 10,000 nuclear warheads. The only nation to ever use these weapons of mass-destruction on anyone – and almost entirely on civilians. This is a racist nation, not just internally, but it kills with its own sense of “moral impunity” because the lives of people of color mean NOTHING to this war machine.

    And again, as MichaelKenny claims, Israel would be NOTHING without the US might behind it. It is a tragedgy. There are millions of wonderful people in the US who have found themselves complicit in war crimes that go back to the fire bombing in WWII up to the present.

  4. bozh said on December 1st, 2010 at 10:52am #

    u.s damaged by wikileaks??? structurally, the statement may be called and deemed a conclusion! however, not very plausible one.
    when will columnists warn people that they are merely concluding when they posit conclusions?
    structurally, a fact, historical or not, appears more reliable than a conclusion.
    here’s a conclusion or an expectation: u.s course wld not even yaw for a second let alone permamently change.
    for the sake of further discussion and study let’s posit that israel or aipac is– by deception– getting u.s in all kinds of trouble or even wars?
    but if so, what r the causes or actors/factors for that? so, find the causes for israeli mastery of u.s, and mastery disappears!
    dwelling on or treating symptoms, does not cure any illness unless nature intervenes. tnx

  5. 3bancan said on December 1st, 2010 at 10:53am #

    “Israel’s most notable success to date was “fixing” the intelligence that induced the U.S. to invade Iraq in pursuit of a geopolitical agenda long sought by Tel Aviv”
    The destruction of Iraq was wanted and orchestrated by the Jewish nazis. It was not for oil nor for bringing democracy to the Iraqis, it was the genocidal zionazi barbarity which wanted to destroy a country which didn’t bow to its diktat and which it saw as “a threat to Jewish existence”. Btw, Iraq wasn’t the first country – nor will it be the last – to be destroyed “for the good of the Jews”…

  6. shabnam said on December 1st, 2010 at 10:56am #

    {The US has been in one failed war after another.}

    ISREAL HAS BEEN AT WAR with the neighboring countries for more than 60 years continually…. supported the war against Blacks in South Africa by supporting the White ruling elite and transferred nuclear weapon technology to the racists.
    Mossad was and still is active in north of Iraq, Kurdistan, since late 1950s because one of the main goal of Zionists has been the PARTITION OF IRAQ, where WAS NOT A US policy.

    Iraq war was implimented according to ODED YINON strategy and A CLEAN BREAK. The rest is HISTORY.

  7. Max Shields said on December 1st, 2010 at 11:22am #

    As we say state-side, the apple doesn’t fall far from the tree.

  8. bozh said on December 1st, 2010 at 11:24am #

    “People start from a premise – Israel is bad. From there all else becomes a mere point of reference, as Israel grows as a player in disproportion to anything feasible in the real world”.

    ‘jewish’ invasion, expulsion, still extant theft of land, siege of gaza, etc., cannot be called bad? structurally, “bad” is a label and not a premise. i.e., an a priori judgment, but one after the fact.
    boy, can u butcher the language!!

    and because such a ‘premise’ may lead to wrong conclusion; i.e., ‘jews’ being more criminal than, say, indonesians?
    but not all of us think that! i don’t! in fact, i say, supremacist=another supremacist wherever one finds them.

    i also do not think that people look at israel from the label “bad”, but from well known facts.
    and people do have the right to skip this oft-posited facts and just call, say, 98% of all ‘jews’ as criminals. tnx

  9. Max Shields said on December 1st, 2010 at 11:33am #

    The word “bad” was meant as an general pejorative, nothing more.

    I am not (as I always try to iterate with each post) saying that there are not solid facts in our assessment of Israel as a predatory state. There clearly are.

    My point is that we take a point of view and than, as they say, make the facts fit the view. If the facts don’t quite fit, we look for scapegoats or conspiracies to explain why not. We must likewise unbundle those conspiracies to see how they are formed, and what real facts support them rather than assuming that if we both share a view point (i.e., Israel has been a predatory state that has stolen land from the indigenous people there and colonized the region through deep injustices) that we need to conclude every instance that doesn’t conform to that view is somehow ipso facto to be shared.

    Hope I’ve made myself clear.

  10. Max Shields said on December 1st, 2010 at 11:35am #

    In other words, even those who share a fundamental view can part ways from time to time when it comes to explaining events as they occur or we are made aware of them.

    Must we agree on each and every point in order not to be called some hedious name? Is so then there is a dogma that is perhaps more treacherous than the shared view.

  11. bozh said on December 1st, 2010 at 11:36am #

    u sure know how to make mystory out of history. and u do posit a number of ur conclusions as facts.
    ur conclusion that u.s wld de jure split asunder iraq, wld go, i affirm, against ‘jewish’, nato, and u.s interests.

    keeping afgh’n and iraq dismembered appears for now and for forseeable time optimal solution for the invaders.

    and if nato-u.s-israel ever conquer iran, i conclude, it, too, wld be kept together by its puppetization and occupation.tnx

  12. bozh said on December 1st, 2010 at 11:51am #

    “My point is that we take a point of view and than, as they say, make the facts fit the view. If the facts don’t quite fit, we look for scapegoats or conspiracies to explain why not”.

    sorry max to bring u up once more! a point of view doesn’t just happen! a conclusion [point of view] is drawn from what one knows.
    let’s take u.s flag. from what i know, i take a point of view: it represents supremacism, badness, evil.
    now take an american adult! s/he sees u.s flag and sees justice, peace, progress, etc., because from childhood on s/he ‘learnt’ that it represents all the best human qualities.
    so nothing in this world happens by the will of any god or spirit. tnx

  13. Max Shields said on December 1st, 2010 at 12:29pm #

    bozh, not sure how you are advancing the discussion. So I’ll leave it at that.

  14. Don Hawkins said on December 1st, 2010 at 1:53pm #

    God bless the USA how’s that for advancing the discussion or God bless the stock market and I hpoe ypur not short today. Doing God’s work.

  15. bozh said on December 1st, 2010 at 2:11pm #

    i may not be advancing discussion to please u, but i am surely advancing the only cause i care about: elimination of root cause of all evil; whatever it may turn out to pleasant everybody.

    i am not really interested in talking to u or any supremacist; i am exposing ur butchery of language and deterrance to meaningful discourse.

    u don’t fool me! u r like chomsky: danger! let’s prevent it but keep the system in u.s intact, in ur case; israel, in chomsky’s case. tnx

  16. shabnam said on December 1st, 2010 at 3:05pm #

    According to Iranian government one of the top nuclear scientists was ASSASSINATED BY Mossad/Israel.

    Iran’s top nuclear scientist was assassinated in a car bombing on Monday, and Iran is blaming Israel.
    Iran’s president accused Israel and the West of being behind a pair of daring bomb attacks that killed one nuclear scientist and wounded another in their cars on the streets of Tehran on Monday. He also admitted for the first time that a computer worm had affected centrifuges in Iran’s uranium enrichment program.
    Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and other Iranian officials vowed that the nuclear program would not be hampered by what they described as a campaign to sabotage it – whether by assassination or by the computer virus. The United States and its allies say Iran is seeking to build a nuclear bomb, a claim Tehran denies.

    Mossad assassinated an Egyptian nuclear scientist in 1980.
    It was 14 years ago, on June 7, 1981, that 16 U.S.-made Israeli warplanes bombed and destroyed Iraq’s Osirak nuclear research facility near Baghdad.

    On June 13, 1980, Dr. Yahya Meshad, an Egyptian nuclear physicist working for Iraq’s Atomic Energy Commission, was killed in his Paris hotel room. Meshad had been in France checking on highly enriched uranium that was about to be shipped as the first fuel for Iraq’s reactor and, according to Mossad defector Victor Ostrovsky, was the victim of Mossad agents. Two months later, starting Aug. 2, a series of bombs exploded at the offices or residences of officials of Iraq’s key suppliers in Italy and France: SNIA-Techint, Ansaldo Mercanico Nucleare and Techniatome. The three firms were supplying Iraq with a reactor and hot cells and their officials and workers were harassed by threatening letters.

    Bomb Israel. Wipe the judeofascists off our region at once. The international community is FED UP WITH criminal states including ISRAEL. Killing nuclear scientists in the region began BY ISRAEL.

    international community is FED UP with a criminal state of Israel, where is at war with its neighbor and beyond since its erection by the British Empire. Israel is a country introduced the Middle East with the modern terrorism, Killing nuclear scientists of the neighboring states to preserve its military edge to satisfy the judeofascists who supported genocide in Gaza in 2009.

  17. commoner3 said on December 1st, 2010 at 7:55pm #

    “U.S. diplomats will now be suspected of spying and lying. What nation can now trust Americans to maintain confidences?”

    Really! It is a known fact that all diplomats spy and lie. What else is new??
    This article glorifies Israel and paint a picture of a formidable clever entity.
    Israel might be clever but is not infallable. Israel makes and made a lot of mistakes, but they control the media and hollywood and glorifies themselves.
    Without the economic and military help of the US, Israel will collapse in seconds.

  18. Ismail Zayid said on December 2nd, 2010 at 9:23am #

    The success of the ‘game theory’ is clearly evident in the various Wikileaks reports. It has diverted, as clearly illustrated by Jeff Gates, the focus that was placed on Israel and its manipulation of the so-called ‘peace process’, to Iran and the US. The Tel Aviv skill in these methods was adequate to wage war on Iraq, and preumably the object is now to justify waging war on Iran.

    The Mossad records another triumph.