The Supreme Court validated the results published by CENI and dismissed a challenge to the results by the opposition, led by presidential candidate Vital Kamerhe. The opposition categorically rejected the results as fraudulent. Nonetheless, Joseph Kabila was sworn into office on Tuesday, December 20th, where only one head of state (Robert Mugabe of Zimbabwe) attended although 12 other African heads of states were expected to attend. Ambassadors from foreign nations, including the United States, were present for Kabila’s swearing-in.

Rejecting the results, Etienne Tshisekedi announced that he would have his own swearing-in among the people at the 80,000 capacity Martyrs Stadium on Friday, December 23rd. Being under virtual house arrest, Tshisekedi was confined to his residence by the Kabila regime. The government also prevented the population from entering the stadium with a heavy show of force from the police, armed forces, and presidential guard. The regime blocked routes leading to the stadium with heavy tanks and artillery. Instead of a swearing-in at the stadium in front of a large audience, Etienne Tshisekedi had to perform the ceremony at home in his garden. In addition to domestic pressure, the government is experiencing intense international pressure; the European Union has said it will re-evaluate its cooperation with the DRC and make judgments based on how the political crisis unfolds, and Mme Christine Lagarde, head of the International Monetary Fund, said she is following the situation in the Congo with a particular focus on the rule of law and the political climate, especially the pre and post-electoral periods.

The Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) is at a critical juncture in its tenuous march towards peace and stability. The Kabila regime suffers from a severe crisis of legitimacy and the future of the democratic project is in the balance. Stability will be fleeting without legitimacy. What is at stake in the Congo is not merely an election but respect for the will of a people and the future of democracy in the heart of Africa.

The Carter Center said the Presidential results announced by the CENI “lacked credibility,” while the Archbishop of Kinshasa, Cardinal Laurent Monsengwo, said that the results announced by the CENI reflects “neither the truth nor justice.” The European Union chimed in, noting that the process evinced a lack of transparency, with its missing polling stations and lost results totaling an estimated 1.6 million votes. South Africa noted that the elections were “generally OK,” while the Southern African Development Community (SADC) and the African Union (AU) found little wrong with the elections. Nonetheless, the CENI has ceased the counting of the legislative results and invited an international technical team from the United States and England to help with the counting of the legislative results, which are expected to be announced by January 13th – a constitutional deadline that will be difficult to meet.

Congolese in the diaspora have responded with universal outrage and have taken to the streets throughout the globe. Demonstrations have occurred in London, Brussels, Paris, Berlin, Rome, Johannesburg, Tel Aviv, Toronto, Montreal, Ottawa, New York, Washington and numerous other cities around the world. The central demand of the demonstrations is that the will of the Congolese people be respected. Click here to see videos of Congolese demonstrations!

Due to greater access to information, combined with the freedom to express themselves, Congolese in the Diaspora have voiced the frustrations and concerns of their countrymen and women. The Congolese population inside the country has been under a military clamp-down with tanks in the streets, omnipresent security forces, SMS shut down (a major tool of communication for Congolese), and opposition television shuttered. Moreover, the Kabila regime has already demonstrated a willingness to use its armed and security forces to fire on unarmed civilians (see Human Rights Watch Report) and round-up and disappear civilians (see Amnesty International and Voix Sans Voix Statement).

The best option to rescue the country from a descent into a deeper crisis is the activation of a national mediation mechanism supported by the international community (Southern African Development Community (SADC), African Union (AU), European Union, United Nations and United States). However, political will on the part of the political class to prioritize the people’s interests over partisan interests is a necessary prerequisite for this option to be successful.

2. How many candidates are running and who are the major candidates?
Eleven candidates will run for President. The major candidates include the incumbent, Joseph Kabila, longtime opposition figure Etienne Tshisekedi, former President of Parliament, Vital Kamhere, current President of the Senate and former Prime Minister in the Mobutu Regime, Leon Kengo Wa Dundo.

3. How many people are registered to vote?
The Independent National Electoral Commission registered 32.5 million people to vote in the November 28th elections.

4. Is the presidential elections the only vote to take place?
No, both the presidential and legislative elections will take place on November 28th. Regarding the Legislative elections, 500 seats are up for grabs and over 19,000 candidates have registered to run for the 500 seats.

5. Will the elections actually take place on the designated date of November 28th?
Although a number of Congolese and international NGOs say that the logistics are not in place for the elections, all indications are that the Independent National Electoral Commission (CENI) will hold the elections on November 28th. The President of the CENI, Daniel Ngoy claims that everything will be fully in place by November 25th in preparation for the vote on November 28th.

6. Many news reports indicate that violence will occur during the elections, is this true?
Almost all indications are that the elections will in fact be violent. During the registration period and since the beginning of the electoral campaign violent clashes have occurred primarily between President Joseph Kabila’s party (PPRD) supporters and the main opposition party supporters (Etienne Tshisekedi’s UDPS). Appeals for a peaceful elections have been made by the religious community, local and international NGOs, the European Union, African Union and the United Nations but violence appears to be certain. The United Nations recently published a report that documented 200 cases of election-related violence.

7. What are some of the logistical challenges faced by the election organizers?
Congo has limited paved roads, therefore most travel from East to West or North to South has to be done by air. The elections require 62,000 polling stations, 180,000 ballot boxes and 64 million ballots, therefore an enormous air lift campaign is required to distribute the ballot boxes and ballots. As soon as China and South Africa complete the printing of the ballots and the construction of the ballot boxes they have to be distributed throughout the country. The first ballot boxes arrived on the week of November 7th, which is well behind the schedule of 2006.

8. Mostly bad news have been reported about the elections, is there any good news?
Yes, there is good news. The fact that the leadership of the country is being contested democratically and that a nationwide consensus exists whereby elections is the legitimate avenue through which leaders will be determined is good news for a country that has experienced decades of dictatorship and conflict. In addition, civil society is fully engaged in making the elections as peaceful and non-violent as possible. They are educating the local population and have issued several reports calling on the political leaders to be responsible in their conduct of their campaigns.

9. When will the election results be announced?
The provisional results for the presidential elections will be announced on December 6th and the final results on December 20th. Regarding the legislative elections, the results are scheduled to be announced on January 13th.

10. We are told this year’s election is Congo’s third democratic one, when did Congo have its first elections?
Congo had its first elections in May 1960, where it elected its first Prime Minister, Patrice Emery Lumumba. Unfortunately, he was overthrown by the United States (Read Chief of Station, Congo by Larry Devlin of the CIA for detailed description of Lumumba’s overthrow by the U.S.) in collaboration with Congolese sycophants within weeks of being inaugurated and later assassinated on January 17, 1961. The Congo has not been the same since, it quickly descended into Chaos and later ruled by US-backed dictator Joseph Desire Mobutu for over 30 years. The second election, held in 2006 was won by Joseph Kabila who is running for a second term this year.

Election Background

Common Cause UK On October 28, 2011 the election campaign began in the Democratic Republic of Congo. The Presidential and Legislative elections will take place on November 28, 2011. Although the electoral campaign officially began on October 28th, for all intents and purposes, the election maneuvering began in January 2011 when President Joseph Kabila and the presidential majority in the Congolese Parliament amended the Congolese constitution. The change in the Constitution called for the Presidential elections to be contested in one round instead of two. Before the amendment, in order to win the presidency, the candidate had to win a majority of the votes. If no candidate acquired a majority in the first round of the elections, there would be a runoff between the two top candidates. Now that the Constitution is amended, there is only one round and whoever wins the highest percentage of the votes will become President. Theoretically, someone can become president with as little as ten percent of the votes.

The constitutional change has shaped the electoral landscape for the past ten months. On November 28, 11 candidates will vie for the presidency and over 18,000 candidates will compete for 500 Parliamentary seats.

Due to the constitutional change by President Kabila and his presidential majority, the onus has been placed on the opposition to unify behind a single candidate so that the opposition vote is not divided among several candidates. Due to the vacuous nature of Congo’s political elite, a consensus candidate has not been selected, therefore President Kabila goes into the November 28th elections with a greater chance of victory.

Thus far the campaign period has been contentious and violent. The main clashes have occurred between the main opposition party, UDPS, led by veteran politician Etienne Tshisekedi and the adherents of President Kabila’s party, PPRD. The specter of violence during the elections has risen to a point where the electoral commission has called upon the international Criminal Court to monitor the electoral process.

A persistent area of concern is the logistics of the elections and the potential of a delay in the polls. The Congo is infamous for its lack of infrastructure (particularly roads and rail). Therefore, it is a logistical nightmare to distribute 180,000 ballot boxes and 64 million ballots from China and South Africa respectively. Once in country, it is the job of the United Nations to distribute them throughout the nation. It was only during the first week of November that the first shipment arrived. The Independent National Electoral Commission (CENI) claims that all the polling stations will be equipped and ready to go by November 25th. Many local and international observers have called for a delay in the polls to assure that all logistical challenges are worked out. President Kabila, the head of the CENI, Daniel Ngoy Mulunda and Etienne Tshisekedi have all called for the elections to be held on the designated date, November 28, 2011.

A delay in the polls risks triggering a constitutional crisis. According to the Congolese constitution, a new government must be installed by December 6th. Should this deadline be missed, it opens up the political arena for greater uncertainty. The leading opposition figure, Etienne Tshisekedi, has vowed not to recognize the current government as the legitimate caretaker of the nation if a President is not elected and installed by December 6th. Congolese civil society, the United Nations and International NGOs have called for a delay in the vote and a contingency plan in case the elections do not take place on November 28th.

Rwanda has responded fiercely to the accusation of genocide and has threatened to withdraw its soldiers from UN peacekeeping efforts in Darfur and elsewhere. The contents of the report are not necessarily new; similar charges were made in the 1997 United Nations led study by Roberto Garreton. The difference is that the United Nations is now poised to put its imprimatur on the charges of genocide, and Rwanda’s primary backers, the United States and Britain, do not appear to have blocked, discouraged or subverted the report as was the case in the late 1990s.

Due in part to pressure from the Rwandan government, the report that was supposed to be released last week has been delayed until October 1st.

Human Rights Watch researcher Anneke Van Woudenberg says the report is of “immense historical importance.” Over 200 Congolese human rights groups, many of which collaborated with the UN investigative team on the report, have called on the United Nations to endorse and publish the report.

The report has the potential to restructure the manner in which Western governments deal with the Congo and the Great Lakes region of Africa. Eyes are on the United States and Britain in particular. Both countries have covered for Rwanda and given Paul Kagame carte blanche, in spite of existing US law (PL 109-456) that would hold Rwanda accountable for its destructive and destabilizing actions in the Congo.

The call from the Congolese people for justice has been consistent for the past fourteen years. Will the world finally listen and act? Today is the world’s Congo moment. The leaked UN report is a call to all justice seekers and fighters against mass atrocities and genocide to break the silence and stand for justice in the heart of Africa.

We have reasons to doubt that Laurent Nkunda has been arrested. Rwandan Maj. Jill Rutaremara said that Nkunda was in Rwanda but “not in jail.” If Nkunda has in fact been arrested it would be a positive development but not a massive change as some analysts would like you to believe. A true marker of the veracity of Rwanda’s claims of arresting Nkunda will be the extradition of Nkunda to the Congo where he committed the crimes against the Congolese people. If Nkunda is not extradited to Congo in short order then that will be a clear sign that this is part of the shell game that Rwanda has been playing for the past 12 years, a period during which they replaced one proxy leader with another while they continued to occupy Eastern Congo. Even if Nkunda were to be arrested, it would be a fundamental flaw in one’s reasoning to believe that Nkunda was the primary cause of the conflict in the east. In essence, what has happened is that Nkunda’s National Congress for the Defense of the People has been replaced by thousands of Rwandan troops. The problem is Rwanda’s and Uganda’s aggression against the Congo backed primarily by the United States and British governments and corporate interests since 1996.

If Rwanda did in fact arrest Nkunda, doesn’t this mean that they never supported him as the December 12th UN Report documented?

No, to the contrary, over the past twelve years Rwanda has shuffled different rebel leaders according to its interests. It is in part for this reason there were so many versions of the Rally for Congolese Democracy (RCD, former rebel militia backed by Rwanda), which Nkunda was a part of in 1998 – 2002 war. Nkunda’s apparent replacement, Jean-Bosco Ntaganda, also has an arrest warrant out for him issued by the International Criminal Court; one human rights offender has been replaced by another as Bosco now proclaims to head the CNDP.

A systemic and historical analysis is warranted in order to demystify current events in the Congo and arrive at prescriptions that will lead to lasting peace and stability. Unfortunately, the majority of Great Lakes analysts offer Rwanda-friendly analysis and prescriptions as Rwanda represents the US and British foreign policy interests in Central Africa. These analysts’ job is to provide intellectual and advocacy cover for an otherwise disastrous policy across now two US and British administrations that have led to the deaths of millions of Congolese and the systematic looting of Congo’s wealth to the benefit of U.S. allies Rwanda and Uganda as well as Western corporations.

Isn’t the new collaboration between Congo and Rwanda a good sign on the road to peace and stability in the region?

On December 5th, Rwanda and Congo signed a secret pact in Goma that the Congolese people know nothing about (President Kabila is scheduled to speak to his nation on this issue on Saturday, January 31, 2009). James Kabarebe, Chief of General Staff of the Rwandan Defense Forces and former private secretary and aide-de-camp of Rwanda’s president Paul Kagame was later dispatched to Kinshasa to consummate a deal with President Kabila. Thus, Rwandan President Paul Kagame, James Kabarebe, and President Kabila worked out a deal that resulted in over 5,000 Rwandan soldiers entering Congo. These are the same characters that collaborated in 1996 when Congo was first invaded by Rwanda during the Clinton administration. During that period they traversed the Congo slaughtering Hutu man, woman and child and anyone else who was in the way. The United Nations says that the killings were so massive and systematic that they can be considered crimes against humanity and possibly genocide. The United Nations investigation into these crimes against humanity by the Rwandan army, Kabarebe and Kabila was blocked and still remains to be resolved (see the UN investigations). Once a responsible and credible government is in place in Congo all these crimes must be investigated and justice must be delivered so that the Congolese people can be made whole. Find out more about the Kagame, Kabarebe, Kabila connection in our January 20th Blog. In the final analysis, more troops and further militarization of the region is not the answer. A robust political path must be established in order to lead to peace and stability in the Great Lakes region.

So are you saying that President Kabila allowing Rwandan troops on Congolese soil to hunt down those responsible for the 1994 genocide is not a good thing?

The logic that allowing Rwandan soldiers on Congolese territory to hunt down Hutu rebels will bring about peace is fundamentally flawed. Below are some factors to consider:

1. The deal allowing Rwandan soldiers on Congolese soil was not between the Congolese government and the Rwandan government. It was between the Congolese president Joseph Kabila, whom many suspect is not even Congolese and the Kagame regime in Kigali. Neither the Congolese parliament nor the Congolese people were either consulted or addressed regarding Rwandan troops entering Congolese territory. In fact some Congolese are calling for the impeachment of Kabila. When it comes to matters in Africa, we tend to drop all critical faculties and common sense. Can you imagine troops entering US territory without the US Congress knowing about it and the president not even addressing the population to explain why? What is even more farcical is that some Congolese government officials are trying to convince the world that thousands of Rwandan soldiers are coming into the Congo as advisers to the Congolese troops. It has even been stated that the Rwandan troops will be under Congolese command. Will they be under the same compromised command that Nkunda chased out of North Kivu?

2. It is beyond imagination that Rwanda is going to do in a few weeks what it was not able to do or interested in doing when it occupied the Congo from 1996–2002. During this period of the occupation of eastern Congo they did not wipe out the so-called Hutu militia. In fact, the biggest battle they had was with their ally Uganda over mining concessions. Also, during this time they systematically looted Congo of its wealth. (See UN Reports from 2001–2003). It is this looting of Congo’s wealth that spurred the economic miracle that President Clinton and other Western officials wax eloquently about in Rwanda. You will notice that they never mention the degree to which ill-gotten wealth from the Congo contributed to Rwanda’s “economic miracle.” Former Secretary of State for African Affairs, Herman Cohen says it best when he notes “Having controlled the Kivu provinces for 12 years, Rwanda will not relinquish access to resources that constitute a significant percentage of its gross national product”.

3. What is almost certain is that Rwandan troops on Congolese soil will lead to more suffering of the people of the Congo. Analysts in the West have not fully appreciated the enmity that the average Congolese holds toward Rwanda. Remember, it was the US and British backed Rwandan and Ugandan invasions of 1996 and 1998 that unleashed the deaths of estimated millions of Congolese. So, for one to say that Rwandan soldiers are now going to make things better for the people of the Congo does not take history into account. One merely has to look at the Congo-Ugandan action against Ugandan rebels inside Congolese territory to see where this latest action is heading. Over 600 Congolese civilians lost their lives as a result of military action against the Lord’s Resistance Army in Congo, which began over a month ago. Moreover, that operation was supposed to take a few weeks and now Uganda is requesting more time on Congo’s soil, while Congo’s gold and timber continue to find its way into Uganda.

What role are great powers playing in what is unfolding in the Congo?

It is key to understand how the game is played to keep Africa dependent and impoverished. Because the West is more powerful than the divided and weak African nations, they have been able to assassinate or systematically sideline leaders who truly serve the interest of the people. They facilitate the ascension to power of those who demonstrate a proclivity for killing their fellow Africans. Once these feckless leaders are in power and predictably incapable of governing, western diplomats condescendingly intervene on the premise that those they have assisted in acquiring power either through elections or otherwise cannot in fact justly govern. This narrative is buttressed by superficial media coverage of African society, intellectuals for hire by Western powers and the humanitarian industry. It is in this context that French President Nicolas Sarkozy and former Assistant Secretary of State for African Affairs, Herman Cohen, have proposed the balkanization and economic neutering of the Congo. They have made proposals to reward Rwanda and their Western support structure for the systematic looting of Congo, which has resulted in unmatched death and terror for the Congolese people. Nearly 125 years since Europe gave Congo to King Leopold II of Belgium as his own personal property, the situation is fundamentally the same whereby the affairs of the Congolese people are not determined by themselves; but rather by external forces.

So what can be positively drawn from recent events?

Several things can be looked at positively:

1. It is clear that international pressure works. It has moved Rwanda to at least announce the arrest of Nkunda. As was said, the litmus test for whether Nkunda has actually been arrested is his extradition to Kinshasa, otherwise for all intents and purposes he is vacationing in Rwanda at the behest of Kagame while Rwandan troops roam the hillsides of Eastern Congo with the blessing of Joseph Kabila. The U.S. is finding it increasingly difficult to defend its proxy, Rwanda, as both French and Spanish courts (the same Spanish court that ruled against Pinochet of Chile ) have arrest warrants out on President Kagame’s top officials for commission of war crimes, one of whom, Rose Kabuye, was arrested in Germany in November 2008. Despite such repeated damning evidence against the Kagame regime, under the auspices of Donald Rumsfeld’s AFRICOM program, the US sent a shipment of military equipment to Rwanda for peace keeping purposes in Western Sudan in early January 2009, coinciding with Rwandan troops intervention in Congo. The military shipment is supposed to be used for peace keeping in Western Sudan. Both Sweden and the Netherlands suspended aid to Rwanda and of course the damning December 12th UN Report have made it difficult for anyone to defend Rwanda except for some ideologically-driven humanitarian institutions. Even the New York Times editorial board continues to call for international pressure on Rwanda.

2. Kagame felt a necessity to adjust to the new realities in Washington. He could not necessarily count on President Obama to give him carte blanche as he has received from Presidents Clinton and Bush. Rwanda is certainly still a staunch ally of the U.S. However, Kagame cannot be certain that President Obama will fully support him in spite of some of the old guards (Susan Rice at the UN and Hillary Clinton as Secretary of State) being in the administration. The Obama administration can hardly present itself as an administration of change with an old policy for the Great Lakes in particular and Africa in general. The new administration would be best served to implement policies that serve the people and not strongmen like Kagame and Kabila.

3. The US and British baked resource war of aggression is being disrobed on a daily basis. The hunt for the Hutu rebels is an attempt to recast the conflict in an ethnic context. The Hutu rebels, otherwise know as the Interahamwe or Democratic Forces for the Liberation of Rwanda (FDLR in French) need to be dealt with, but not in the manner currently underway. Remember, it has been the Congolese people who have been the primary victims of the presence of the Hutu rebels in the Congo. Nonetheless, what is happening in Central Africa is a high stakes geo-political battle for precious and strategic resources that are vital to the world’s military, aeronautics, electronics and technology industries. This interview with British Foreign Minister David Miliband provides some insight and perspective on the vital corporate interests in Central Africa.

4. The average person is becoming better informed and more engaged about the root causes of the deadliest conflict in the world since World War Two. They are better equipped to demand action from their elected officials and challenge humanitarian institutions that come to their communities peddling warmed over ethnic explanations for the suffering of the people of Congo.

We are confident that with persistent education, organization and mobilization, the people of Congo will be free from the forces that have her sons and daughters living in absolute misery while we in the West benefit from her riches.

Join the global movement in support of the people of the Congo and strike a blow for justice and human dignity.

The central idea of the Grand Inga project is to harness the Congo River’s power to provide electricity to countries such as Italy, Israel, Egypt, Nigeria, South Africa and purportedly 500 million Africans living in the dark. Once brought to fruition (proposed completion date is 2020), Grand Inga would be the most powerful hydro power in the World.

The enormous potential of the Congo River to light up the African continent and export electricity to Southern Europe and the Middle East is legendary.

Some concerns of note regarding the project:
* No conversation has taken place with the Congolese people.
* The displacement of local populations will occur.
* Negative impacts to local ecology and environment are ever present.
* Potential saddling of the Congolese people with decades of debt exists.
* Rural African populations will likely be left out.
* Like so many other projects regarding Congo and its enormous wealth, the Grand Inga project planning process suffers from a lack of transparency.
* The initial signs are that big business is poised to reap super benefits from this project. Mining companies such as BHP Billiton are poised realize great windfalls from the Grand Inga project.
* Villagers living in the vicinity of the Grand Inga have not benefited from the smaller Inga Dams (Inga I & II) established decades ago. There is little indication that they will benefit from Grand Inga.
* Concerns are growing that the project will primarily benefit local elites and multinational industrial interests but do little to ease the electricity or development needs of Africa’s poor.

The fabulous wealth and potential of the Congo never ceases to boggle the mind; from its vast mineral wealth, to its spectacular forestry and natural pharmacopeia and the roaring mighty Congo River. The Grand Inga project is yet another example of Congo’s potential to transform an entire continent. Unfortunately, it is highly unlikely that the Congolese people or most Africans will benefit, especially with the existing leadership which was put in power by the West to facilitate the wholesale fleecing of the country’s wealth. (see the 2007 International Crisis Group Study “Congo: Consolidating the Peace“)

The principal key resource that has received little interest and borne the brunt of the latest scramble for Congo’s wealth is Congo’s remarkable people. Almost six million of whom have died since 1996 as a result of the Rwandan led and Western backed invasions and resource grab of 1996 and 1998. Forty-five thousand Congolese continue to die each month, hundreds of thousands of women have been raped, 80 percent of the population lives on 30 cents or less a day, all in the midst of arguably the richest natural wealth on the planet. It is this sad state of affairs that led Antonio Guterres, UN High Commissioner for Refugees to remind the world that “The international community has systematically looted DRC and we should not forget that.”

Once the women will have been stitched-up from their violent rapes, the children returned from the bush as child soldiers, the displaced returned to their villages, they will have found their country sold off for another generation or two, while they scrounge to eke out a meager existence in a land of plenty and become wholly dependent on the humanitarian industry.

As a global community of conscience we must not allow this to happen. Each of us should be found at the side of the Congolese as they defend their interests in the face of the latest onslaught not seen since the days of King Leopold II.

Read more about the Grand Inga project and find out how you can work with the Congolese to achieve human dignity and control of their country’s enormous wealth.