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Shiite
And Sunni Muslims Struggle
To
Fill Leadership Void In Iraq
by
Ahmed Rashid
May
5, 2003
Anti-American
protests in Iraq, such as the April 28 incident in Fallujah that left an
estimated 15 Iraqis dead, should not come as a surprise to Washington. Most
Iraqis don't share the U.S. vision of a reconstructed Iraq resting on a
foundation of Western-style democracy. For many, the end of Saddam Hussein's
regime has prompted a yearning for a religious and cultural revival, raising
the prospect of an Islamic state based on conservative Shiite beliefs.
Although
it appears certain that Iraq is set for a revival of Islamic values, at present
there remains ample room for religious developments to move in many directions.
The revival could move toward the recognition of Iraq's Islamic legacy while
making it compatible with greater freedom, economic development, and openness
to the outside world. Such is the approach taken by President Hamid Karzai's
administration in Afghanistan. It is also possible, however, that the revival
may travel down the road toward Islamic extremism, anti-Westernism and
sectarian violence that could easily culminate in a new dictatorship.
The
lack of a cohesive American post-war political and economic strategy for
Iraq--coupled with the arrogance of the Bush administration and Washington's
disregard for a historical perspective--is diminishing the chances for the
development of a secular democratic government in Iraq. The country is now
developing into a battleground between Shiite and Sunni Muslims, who both seek
to fill the leadership void created by the quick collapse of Saddam's regime.
The
secularism practiced by the Saddam Hussein's Baath Party is now being
repudiated by the Iraqi people. At the same time, many Iraqis are again
embracing the Shiite form of Islam that the Iraqi regime suppressed for over
three decades. That Shiite Islam could be the guiding force in Iraq's
reconstruction is easily understood if the country's collective experience
during the Saddam era is taken into account. Iraq is a majority Shiite state
that was ruled by a small sect of nominally Sunni Muslims under Saddam. Apart
from the Kurdish resistance in northern Iraq, the only form of underground
opposition to Saddam during Iraq's long night was provided by Shiite religious
leaders. Practically the only institutional dissent that could withstand
Saddam's ruthless persecution came from mosques.
Shiite
Islam, as compared to Sunni Islam, is more hierarchical, disciplined, and
political. Just as in Central Asia, where an underground Islam kept people
spiritually alive and connected during the Soviet era, so in Iraq the mosques
quietly provided people with a spiritual haven and an alternative to the Baath
Party for political expression.
Iraq's
exiled political leadership favored by the Americans has little standing in the
country--not because they are secular, but because they are perceived to be out
of touch with the country's current mood and conditions. They are also seen to
be too dependent on the support of foreign occupation forces, namely the U.S.
Army.
Many
prominent figures in anti-American protests these days are ayatollahs who have
emerged from underground. Yet, even as these Shiite leaders demand the
departure of U.S. forces and stress an Islamic revival, they also emphasize the
need for democratic values. Many urge unity among Shiites and Sunnis, and call
for the protection of minority rights, including those of the Kurds. They also
want a freely elected government, in large part because Shiite leaders know
that, in a free and fair election, they would be well positioned to govern.
There
is also a possibility that the Shiite religious revival could produce pressure
for the creation of an Islamic state. Such a development would likely to be
vigorously opposed by Sunnis, with encouragement from Iraq's Sunni Arab
neighbors. Many Sunnis feel uncomfortable about the prospect of a Shiite Iraqi
state, especially one with close ties to the Islamic Republic of Iran, which is
also dominated by Shiites.
Most
oil-rich Arab Gulf states have large Shiite minorities, and many of them are
subjected to discriminatory practices. Rulers in the Gulf region are thus
worried that a Shiite Iraq could serve as an example that causes their own
Shiite minorities to become restive. As moderate and hardline Shiite leaders
struggle for influence in post-war Iraq, with Iran trying likely trying to
influence the outcome, Iraq's Arab neighbors--particularly Syria, Egypt, and
Saudi Arabia--appear sure to sponsor Sunni elements in Baghdad.
Ahmed Rashid is a journalist
and the author of Jihad: The Rise of Militant Islam in Central Asia (Yale
University Press, 2002) and the #1 bestseller Taliban: Militant Islam, Oil
& Fundamentalism in Central Asia (Yale University Press, 2000). This
first appeared on EurasiaNet (online at www.eurasianet.org).