Why He Can't Wait
by
Mark Weisbrot
Dissident Voice
March 11, 2003
"These
are the actions of a regime engaged in a willful charade. These are the actions
of a regime that systematically and deliberately is defying the world."
That was George W. Bush
talking about Iraq last week, but it describes his own regime quite accurately.
Just six days earlier, the White House announced that it didn't matter if Iraq
disarmed: the goal was regime change.
Now there is a "willful
charade" if there ever was one. In one sentence, the Bush administration
admitted to the world that the whole inspection process, the arguments over
whether Iraq has weapons of mass destruction or is complying with UN
resolutions, were just a smokescreen.
Many people had suspected as
much, since "regime change" in Iraq has long been one of the Bush
administration's goals. The administration had made a similar statement back in
October, but then took it back, saying that if Saddam really disarmed then that
would constitute a change of regime.
Now the mask is off. Bush is
going to war, no matter what Iraq does or does not do, no matter what weapons
it has or does not have. So what if the documents that Britain and our
government relied on to claim that Saddam Hussein was trying to buy uranium
turned out to be a forgery? Or if those infamous aluminum tubes, according to
the International Atomic Energy Agency, can't be used for nuclear weapons?
None of this matters because
George W. Bush has decided to invade Iraq, and he intends to do it very soon.
More than the coming hot desert weather or moonless nights, he is in a hurry
because he is losing support at home with each passing day.
A big reason for his falling
popularity at home is the economy. Last month we lost another 308,000 jobs, an
enormous drop in employment, bringing the total job loss since Mr. Bush took
office to more than 2 million. Manufacturing employment hit its lowest level
since 1946. Democrats will soon be pointing out that, in Bill Clinton's first
25 months in office, the economy had a net gain of more than 7 million jobs.
These kinds of things matter
much more to most American voters than who is ruling Iraq, and the Bush team
has its eyes on 2004. We have already had a recession in 2001, and the economy
appears to be headed for another one. Business investment is still down about
10 percent from its peak in 2000, consumers have taken on record levels of debt
and -- especially given the weak labor market -- are not very confident about
the future.
Our record, unsustainable
trade deficit is another drag on the economy. State governments are, very
painfully, trying to close a budget gap of $80 billion dollars over the next
year. And while we are still feeling the effects of the stock market bubble
that burst three years ago, there is another, similar bubble in housing prices.
The collapse of this bubble, which may be imminent, could by itself tip the
economy into recession.
Meanwhile, the federal
government has abdicated its own responsibility to provide some economic
stimulus. The Administration is offering only what Mr. Bush's father rightfully
called "voodoo economics" back in 1980: another rewriting of the tax
code over the next 10 years to redistribute even more income to well-off
households.
The Bush team has
successfully used the war since last August to displace domestic issues,
thereby winning both houses of Congress and avoiding a cesspool of scandals
(remember Enron? Harken Energy Corporation? Halliburton?). War is their savior,
or so they hope.
Their fantasy: first, the
fighting is over very quickly. The media, especially television (their other
savior) will rally around the war, oil prices will drop, the cloud of
uncertainty that now hangs over business and consumer confidence will recede,
and the economy will recover. Bush will be hailed as conquering victor.
But the current troubles of
the American economy will not be resolved so easily. And the post-war
occupation of Iraq will likely make matters worse: everyone in the region (and
most of the world) will want the U.S. troops out. Prolonged conflict,
terrorism, and more clouds over the future of the world economy (oil prices,
interest rates, investment) are the more likely outcome. For all of the Bush
team's cynical and ruthless political calculations, this war will not help them
stay in power.
Mark Weisbrot is Co-Director of the Center for
Economic and Policy Research, a nonpartisan
think-tank in the nation's capital. Readers may write him at CEPR, 1621
Connecticut Ave NW, Suite 500, Washington, DC 20009-1052 and e-mail him
at Weisbrot@cepr.net