Comments on: Housing Rebound? Not So Fast

By: Art

Art — Mon, 02 Nov 2009 21:13:05 +0000

One of the problems with listening to economists is they may have a lot of information and theories, but is it helpful in looking at what MAY happen in the future? “Gut Feelings” by Gerd Gigerenzer shows beyond a doubt how poorly stock market “experts” and their complicated predictive algorithms do when compared to choices the uninformed masses might make if they just relied on name recognition. Having one or two “good reasons” to think we haven’t reached ‘bottom’ yet on this may be just plain horse sense. Seeing people still losing jobs and houses by the thousands in your own community may be sufficient reason for us common folk to sit on the sidelines and wait for something that has more recovery quack and waddle than pundit platitudes.

Despite the efforts of the banks, politicians and their sycophants to make the current Mortgage Crisis complicated and now “recovering”, Mike puts forward the idea that it is very simple. The banks, the Fed and the politicians lied. The proof Mike offers may be more convoluted, as the guilty have worked hard to make this process as opaque as humanly possible. And predicting the future will change as the “deciders” try new ways to fleece an already shivering flock.

My from-the-trenches 2 cents? Having read Galbraith’s history of the ‘29 Crash etc., the main difference I see is this time the politicians caved to the banks et. al. and tossed in huge volumes public money to attempt to re-inflate/create the next investment bubble. (Anyone wanna buy some tulip bulbs?) Only time will tell if this was smarter than waiting for the worst of the banks/car companies to fail, the remainder to be willing to be regulated, and then using the Ace-in-the-hole that public funds should be.

But this time the public cupboard is bare.

By: Don Hawkins

Don Hawkins — Mon, 02 Nov 2009 20:19:45 +0000

I can read Einstein or Hawking, Hansen, Max, Bozh and understand most of it. Now for me to try and understand the economy or the market well thinking in reverse or backwards is hard for me. Roubini sort of but Mike has a touch of genius at times and that’s what I look for.

By: Serfdumb

Serfdumb — Mon, 02 Nov 2009 19:45:32 +0000

Yes, perhaps his point is to catapult feelings of uncertainty. In fact he catapulted enough feelings of uncertainty back in 2007 regarding the subprime mortgage meltdown and it’s impact on the economy as a whole that I pulled out of the market before the dow tumbled from 14000 to 6500.
Yah, what a hack huh?
I don’t see anyone here sticking their necks out like he does. It’s easy to criticize, not so easy to analyze. It seems a lot of economists feel if we can just generate enough enthusiasm everything is going to be fine. Yeah, right.

By: Don Hawkins

Don Hawkins — Mon, 02 Nov 2009 19:43:57 +0000

http://dissidentvoice.org/2007/04/housing-bubble-boondoggle-is-it-too-late-to-get-out/

Read this by mike a few years back. Mike again thanks for your witting as you helped me to sell my house about 4 years ago and right now in Florida where I did live deep do do. Come to think of it we are all in deep do do.

By: Melissa

Melissa — Mon, 02 Nov 2009 18:38:45 +0000

Perhaps the point is to catapult the feelings of uncertainty.

I hear what you’re saying Michael Kenny. ? Mr. Whitney is not worth a whit in the economics arena. He’s good at confusing people, though.

Gotta go chase my tail.

Melissa

By: Michael Kenny

Michael Kenny — Mon, 02 Nov 2009 17:35:14 +0000

I really wonder why Mr Whitney (or, since he told us way back he knows nothing about economics, whoever ghost-writes the articles) bothers to continue to write these articles! One day, the dollar is going to crash, the next day it isn’t, the day after, it will crash in 15 years but not 5 years, then it won’t crash because “crash” means a decline in value only when there’s an R in the month, then the whole world is lining up to buy US Treasury bonds because they’re unbeatable value, now nobody wants them at any price and so on! His previous article of only a day or two ago began with the words “the recession is over”. Today “the sense that the economy is returning to normal, is an illusion nurtured by the financial media”! You’d almost think that these articles were written by several different people who disagreed violently with each other! Is there really any point in that?