Consequences of an Imposed Regime Change in Iran

Give me the money that has been spent in war and I will clothe every man, woman, and child in an attire of which kings and queens will be proud. I will build a schoolhouse in every valley over the whole earth. I will crown every hillside with a place of worship consecrated to peace.

— Charles Sumner

In each war there are always winners and losers. The winners are those who make money and gather more power to themselves while all the others are the losers. It doesn’t matter if one has been on this side or that side; chances are that in the end the majority end up losing far more than they thought they will gain. Ask any parent that has lost a child in a war if he or she can in any way be compensated for that loss and you’ll have the answer.

One can expect the push for war from those who will gain from it, but not from those who lose. But the sad fact is that those who gain from war use all the communication means at their disposal to persuade the losers to support and even participate in the war. The American people were thus persuaded to participate in the war against Iraq. Those who were against it were labelled as unpatriotic fools who were working against their country’s interests.

But it wasn’t only the foreigners that wanted a war in Iraq. Some Iraqi exiles played an important role in this as well. They gave the Neocons the excuse to claim that they were not invading Iraq only to secure America, but also to “FREE” the Iraqi people. People such as Chalabi and Iyad Allawi, supported and funded by CIA and others, gave credence to the allegations against Iraq. Did these people do it on purpose or were they fooled? Did they sit and consider the consequences for the rest of the Iraqis, or were they thinking only of what was in it for them?

As the Neocons and their allies continue to push for a devastating war against Iran, they are joined by some Iranian exiles who profess that they cannot wait a minute longer for the war to start. They are claiming, as their Iraqi counterparts did, that they are supporting the Neocons because they want to free the long suppressed Iranian People. Here I am not going to question their motives, but their wisdom. Have these people considered the consequences of such an action? Do they know what it means to create chaos in Iran and what the consequences will be for Iranians and Iran? In case they don’t know, I would like to provide them with some information.

We all have heard of the Neocons’ plan for a new Middle East but had never seen a map of it until it was published in the Armed Forces Journal in June 2006, which as can be expected was greeted by protests from Turkey and other countries. The map resurfaced again in September 15, 2006 when it was presented at the NATO’s Defence College in Rome.1

A Hyperimperialist Rendering of a Further Divided Middle East and Beyond

This map showed how future Iraq, Iran, Turkey and Afghanistan would look like. With regards to Iran, one can see that in the south west, the oilfields are taken out and merged with oil rich regions of Iraq to make a country called “Arab Shia State”. In the north, parts of Iran is merged with the Iraqi and Turkish Kurdish area to create the “Free Kurdistan”. The Iranian Azerbaijan is merged with Azerbaijan. In the west the Sistan and Baluchistan is merged with the Pakistani Baluchistan to create the “Free Baluchistan”. On the other hand Kuwait is kept in place, while Saudi Arabia is divided into its oil and non oil regions. This was not a political map, but an “oil” map. Those places that had oil or gas were put into mini-states, vulnerable and needing protection; the protection that US and its allies could then provide.

Now, if you look at the events as they are unfolding, at least as far as Iran is concerned, you’ll see how this fictional map is slowly being turned into reality. To start with Israel has admitted that it is shipping weapons and helping Iranian Kurdish rebels to fight the central government. On August 27, Avigdor Lieberman said Israel is extending aid to those opposition organizations which are proving effective. He was the first member of the Israeli government to expose the clandestine war against Iran.2

The Kurdish group is not the only one enjoying Israeli or Western help. We have the Azeri group in the north and Ahwazi group in the south. We also have the Baluchi group in the south east enjoying funding and support from the UK, US, Israel, etc.

As you are reading this article, the roots of major internal conflicts are being sown. No one can guess how many people are going to die because of this, but one thing is certain; none of those that are going to suffer are in LA or New York or London. They are all in Iran.

Even if we dismiss these as only conspiracy theories, we cannot dismiss the fact that an invasion or occupation of a country as populous and as vast as Iran is going to be extremely difficult and bloody.

One must not forget that if only 10% of over one million Basiij and the revolutionary guards decide to mount a guerrilla war against an occupying army or a puppet regime, it will take many many years to bring stability to the country. We will see many Abou Gharibs and many more atrocities committed in the name of Democracy and Freedom.

Who would like to see foreign boots kicking down doors in the middle of the night? Who would like to see women and children crying in terror as their houses are searched and their men-folk blindfolded, manhandled and taken to prisons? Who would like to see picture of rapes of his or her fellow citizens by foreign troops? Please stand-up and be counted. Don’t hide behind slogans.

Before shouting slogans and jumping on the Neocon’s bandwagon, one should consider all the consequences. Some claim that those who are against war with Iran are in the pay of the Iranian government or are its apologists. They are mistaken. No one but a fool will support a “preventive” or an expansionist war. After seeing Iraq and Afghanistan, only a fool will support more of the same. But again some may see this as an opportunity to make a quick buck. To these I have to say that no amount of money in the world is going to wash the blood of the innocent people from your hands.

Please remember that as the German proverb says: A great war leaves the country with three armies: an army of cripples, an army of mourners, and an army of thieves.

See also the related article: “A Bloody Border Project: Zionist-Imperialist Dogma from the Armed Forces Journal.”

  1. Zaman.com, “Carved-up Map of Turkey at NATO Prompts US Apology”, September 29, 2006. []
  2. Debka File, “Israel is aiding Iranian opposition groups, says Strategic Threats Minister Lieberman”, August 28, 2007. []

Dr. Abbas Bakhtiar lives in Norway. He is a management consultant and a contributing writer for many online journals. He's a former associate professor of Nordland University, Norway and can be contacted at: Bakhtiarspace-articles@yahoo.no. Read other articles by Abbas.

12 comments on this article so far ...

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  1. Lloyd Rowsey said on September 26th, 2007 at 5:51am #

    Wow.

  2. Lloyd Rowsey said on September 26th, 2007 at 8:38pm #

    I promise to repeat my “Wow” tomorrow if you make Dr. Bahktiar’s article accessible to anyone but me.

  3. Leyla said on September 26th, 2007 at 10:55pm #

    I can see his article and agree with it. The CIA/USA have sown the seeds. We are now watching what it will grow into. I am sure that it won’t disappoint us, we are all expecting the whole region to be thrown into total chaos and anarchy – look at Iraq. But don’t forget, even if the governments have been sold out the people haven’t. And not all countries are like Iraq, the peoples are nationalistic and won’t let the USA walk all over them as the Iraqis have. Also, there is a lot of sympathy and empathy for the Iraqis.

  4. Lloyd Rowsey said on September 27th, 2007 at 7:34am #

    I just read it again. Wow.

  5. Mike McNiven said on September 28th, 2007 at 1:19pm #

    An imposed regime change is very very bad for the people of Iran, and they are not going to let it happen! Those who were involved in the 1979 anti-monarchical/national-democratic revolution, fortunately, are still around!
    Bakhtiar’s view is a capitalist one, for an anti-capitalist view of the situation please see:

    http://www.iran-bulletin.org/Attack%20on%20Iran/NO%20WAR%20ON%20IRAN.htm

  6. Shabnam said on September 28th, 2007 at 1:49pm #

    Thank you for this paper which is on time for the latest amendment, division of Iraq, in the senate where was Passed by a 75 – 23 margin, with Sam Brownback and Hillary Clinton, AIPAC GIRL voting in favor of the proposal. The same thing is happening in Sudan creating
    “minorities”. Under spurious charges such as “child Slavery” the Zionists and US Forces funded SPLA rebels, “minorities”, in southern Sudan in a war against the Sudanese government, in which millions of persons were killed or displaced a few years ago. Sanction was accompanied with a campaign of lies and deception under “child Slavery” where the Zionist pro Israel, Charles Jacobs, was involved and Israel was giving the separatists military training like the Kurds. They tried to destabilize the Sudanese government by characterizing the conflict as the black African against the white Arabs and put one against the other, similar to what is happening in our region, the Middle East and central Asia Kurds, Azeri, Balouch….. against the Persian!!!! US and the Zionists are involved in Darfur now and by charges such as “genocide in Darfur” are trying to disintegrate Sudan, the largest country in Africa with a lot of natural resources.
    One thing I would like to see and that is when you write about “People such as Chalabi and Iyad Allawi, supported and funded by CIA and others” please mention name of Kenan Makiya because this person was and is very much involved in destruction of Iraq and unfortunately has remain hidden amongst greater audience. Majority of people mention these two especially Chalabi but Makiya is responsible for destruction of Iraq as much as Chalabi if not more yet he is not known to many.
    His family, according to Edward Said and others, benefited from Saddam and has a close relationship with Cheney and his associates. He has recently attended a conference in Prague to discuss “democracy” with Bush and Hovel and the Iranian sell out “opposition” to plan for more destruction in the Middle East. Edward Said wanted to expose him and other Arabs sell out further but he died before doing so. The Iraqi journalists on Charlie Rose show called Chalabi and Makiya thief and criminal and responsible for destruction of Iraq. Federalism for Iraq is very much his “work” and still defends what has happened in Iraq. He is trying to realize the Zionist’s plan “map change” for the region. Cheney admired this “intellectual” very much on CBS more than 2 years ago. They are close buddies.
    At the end I must explain for those who are not familiar with those Iranian opposition, behind “NO TO IMPERIALIST WAR! NO TO THE THEOCRATIC REGIME, “ the Socialist” which I have already said a few words about them * these arrogant opposition attacking Hezbollah and anything Islamic, backward, and were very disturbed when the British left were supporting human rights of Lebanese people, including Hezbollah, against Israeli aggression and they had this slogan
    “We are all Hezbollah” like when French said “We are all Americans” after September 11, but apparently these Socialist do not think that Hezbollah are human as well.

    http://www.nytimes.com/2007/03/24/world/middleeast/24makiya.html?_r=1&n=Top%2fNews%2fWorld%2fCountries%20and%20Territories%2fIraq&oref=slogin

    http://www.counterpunch.org/cockburn04052003.html
    *
    http://www.dissidentvoice.org/2007/09/changing-course-on-iran/

  7. Amir said on September 29th, 2007 at 5:08am #

    Dear Shabnam,

    Why don’t you publish an article or contacting the author directly? To be honest, it is too long for a comment! I don’t think any body is going to read it here (it is waste of your afford and energy)!

    All the best,

    Dear Dr Bakhtiar,

    Excellent article, well done.

    Best regards,
    Amir

  8. Mike McNiven said on October 2nd, 2007 at 11:52pm #

    http://www.iranpressnews.com/english/source/029177.html

  9. Shawn101 said on October 18th, 2007 at 6:07pm #

    Speak for yourself Amir. I read Shabnams article and I’m sure others will as well.

  10. Chiya said on December 29th, 2007 at 9:07am #

    I didn’t read it all, but what i read seemed interesting. It says there are winners and losers in war but every one ends up losing–i agree with that, and also that if this is called a war on terror, that means they are using war to try to get rid of terror… hmm, I can see who’s going to lose here.

  11. abubakar said on February 11th, 2008 at 12:19pm #

    i would just like to mention one verse of quran”they plan and allah plots and allah is the best of plotter’ ………

  12. AJ said on May 17th, 2009 at 6:50pm #

    This will never happen; the Kurds have cultural and language similarities with persian; some people who might read this article probably do not realize that Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia, Turkemenistan, and Uzbekistan were all part of Iran until as recently as 200 years ago. I hate the Islamic regime of iran, but I will guarantee you that the people of Iran will fight ot the death to maintain her territorial integrity. This is the smallest in size Iran has ever been.